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    基于RF-GLR组合机器学习算法的防空体系能力指标挖掘方法研究

    Designing Evaluation Indices for Air Defense Systems Based on RF-GLR Integrated Machine Learning Algorithms

    • 摘要: 防空作战体系具有自适应性、涌现性、不确定性等典型复杂性特征, 传统基于树状分解的专家指标选取方法无法客观、准确地描述防空体系能力. 以基于武器装备体系仿真床设计的防空体系作战实验为基础, 构建随机森林和广义线性回归算法相组合的机器学习模型(RF-GLR). 对仿真实验数据进行深度挖掘, 得到\防空威胁指数" 这一反映防空体系作战能力的体系指标, 并通过实验数据比对方法验证指标在描述\整体、动态、对抗" 条件下体系能力的有效性, 并进一步演示了防空威胁指数在作战任务预测和体系实时监测的可行性. RF-GLR 组合机器学习算法为实现体系指标的科学选取和体系能力的客观评估提供一套可行的途径, 为信息化条件下的防空体系作战提供决策依据.

       

      Abstract: Air defense operation system of systems (ADOSoS) is a typical complex system with nonlinear, adaptive, uncertain, emergent properties. Traditional capability index selection methods in which the indices are selected based on expert knowledge and experience and decomposed in form of tree-diagram, can not describe the capability of the ADOSoS objectively and accurately. Here, the ADOSoS operations based on Weapon System of Systems Synthetic Simulation Test Bed are designed and simulated, and the assembled machine learning model (RF-GLR) is built, the Random Forest with Generalized Linear Regression algorithm, to farm the multidimensional and holographic operation data deeply. According to the model, one capability index of ADOSoS \Air Defense Threat Index" has been proposed by the emergent summation of the remarkable basic-capacity-indices of subsystems which re°ect the holistic capability of air defense system. The effectiveness of \Air Defense Threat Index" to describe holistic, dynamic and adjective ADOSoS is verifed by contradistinctive experiment, and the application for prediction and the real-time observation for the ADOSoS with the index are also illustrated. Our method supplies a feasible way to construct the capability indices scientifically and measures the system of systems objectively, and provides the guidance for the commanders to make decisions under the information condition.

       

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