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    基于神经网络的跑道占用时间预测

    Runway Occupancy Time Prediction Based on Neural Network

    • 摘要: 跑道占用时间(runway occupancy time, ROT) 是衡量跑道吞吐量的重要影响因素, 提出一种基于 BP (back propagation network, BP)神经网络和跑道雷达监视数据的预测机场到达航班跑道占用时间的方法. 该方法基于 BP 神经网络算法实现预测, 算法利用在 3 个机场的机场跑道监视数据和降落飞机的速度和加速度参数等机载数据(quick access recorder, QAR) , 这些数据涵盖了含重中轻型机在内的十几种机型降落数据和滑行数据. 最后通过基于神经网络算法预测的跑道占用时间结果的预测值和实际观测值之间的回归分析的加权平均 R 平方值为 0.91. 预测跑道出口距离的均方根值为 0.95. 说明该模型在预测跑道占用时间和跑道出口距离上具有较好的准确性.

       

      Abstract: Runway occupancy time(ROT)is an important factor to measure runway throughput. A method based on BP neural network and runway radar monitoring data is proposed to predict the runway occupancy time of airport arrival flights. Based on BP neural network algorithm to realize prediction. The algorithm uses the airport runway monitoring data in three airports and the quick access recorder(QAR)data such as the speed and acceleration parameters of landing aircraft. These data cover the landing data and taxiing data of more than ten types of aircraft including heavy, medium and light aircrafts. Finally, the weighted average R square value of the regression analysis between the predicted value and the actual observation value of the predicted runway occupation time based on the neural network algorithm is 0.91. The root mean square value of the predicted runway exit distance is 0.95. It shows that the model has good accuracy in predicting the runway occupation time and runway exit distance.

       

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