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    宏观尺度C2 过程机理:PREA环理论模型修订及应用

    Macro-scale C2 Process Mechanism: Revision and Application of Theory Model of PREA Loop

    • 摘要: 从物理域、信息域到认知域, 重新定义了宏观尺度指挥与控制(command and control, C2)活动过程描述的机理模型冥冥筹划(planning)-准备(readiness)-执行(execution)-评估(assessment)(PREA)环概念内涵. 在物理域上, 遵循宏观体系演化规律, 定义体系的4 种状态:设计、构建、运行与评估;在信息域上, 遵循战争迷雾逐渐消散的过程, 定义4 种态势:不可预测的演绎态势、可预测态势、实时态势和复盘态势. 在认知域上, 遵循指挥主体渐进决策收敛的规律, 对应4 种态势建立4 种决策方式:基于意图和演绎态势的周密决策、基于预案和可预测态势的审慎决策、基于规则和实时态势的快速决策、基于效果和复盘态势的转换决策. 概括PREA 4个环节的内涵为谋势、布势、控势和度势. 对比分析PREA 环与观察(observe)-判断(orient)-决策(decide)-行动(act)(OODA 环), 反映了东西方两种不同的思维和哲学, PREA 环强调全局整体的连续与稳定, 而OODA 环强调快速和介入.

       

      Abstract: The mechanism model of macro-scale command and control(C2)activity process description, the conceptual connotation of PREA loop is redefined from physical domains, information domains to cognitive domains. In physical domains, the evolutionary law of micro system is followed, four states of system are defined: design, construction, tunning and evaluation. In information domains, the process of gradually dissipating the fog of war is followed. Four kinds of situation are defined: inpredicatable deductive situation, predictable situation, real-time situation and retrospective situation. In cognitive domains the law of the gradual convergence of the decision-making of commander is followed, then four kinds of decision-making methods are established according to four situations: careful decision-making based on intention and deductive situation, prudent decision-making based on pre-plan and predictable situation, rapid decision-making based on rules and real-time situation, and effect-based conversion decision-making based on effects and retrospective situation. The connotation of the four stage of PREA are summarized including: stratagem, deployment, control and evaluation of situation. The comparative analysis of the PREA loop and the OODA loop is done, reflecting the two different thinking and philosophies of the East and the West. The PREA coop emphasizes the continuity and stability of the entirety, while the OODA loop emphasizes quickness and intervention.

       

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