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    基于Elman 的海战环境蒸发波导特性智能预测

    Elman-based Intelligent Prediction of Evaporation Duct Characteristics in Maritime Combat Environment

    • 摘要: 在海上作战环境中,蒸发波导具有很高的可利用率,是影响岸基、船载或低空机载雷达和通信等系统性能的重要因素。利用Elman 神经网络,基于气象数据,构建蒸发波导特性智能预测模型,实现对蒸发波导高度这一特征参数的精确预测。采集了海上实验探空数据,利用构建模型实现蒸发波导高度的预测,分析结果表明:针对海上观测数据,模型能够深度学习或挖掘气象参数中时空要素,全部476 组数据预测误差为1.94 m,统计结果符合正态分布规律。测试集预测误差为1.90 m,体现出蒸发波导特性智能预测模型在波导特性预测上有着较好的泛化能力,能为海战环境下占领电磁环境和频谱战优势、提升作战效能提供有力支撑。

       

      Abstract: The evaporation duct is highly available in the maritime combat environment, and it is an important factor affecting the performance of shore-based, shipborne, or low-altitude airborne radars and communication system. This paper uses the Elman neural network is used to construct an intelligent prediction model of evaporation duct characteristics based on meteorological data and to realize the precise prediction of the characteristic parameters of the height of evaporation duct. The sea experimental sounding data are collected in the paper and the constructed model is used for the prediction of the height of evaporation duct. The analysis results show that the model can deeply learn or dig the spatiotemporal elements from the meteorological parameters according to sea observation data. The prediction error of all 476 groups of data is 1.94 m, and the statistical results are in line with the normal distribution law. The prediction error of the test set is 1.90 m, indicating that the intelligent prediction model of evaporation duct characteristics has a good generalization capability in prediction. It can provide favorable support to occupy the advantage of the electromagnetic environment and spectrum warfare in maritime combat environment.

       

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