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    基于博弈的杀伤链闭合效能评估方法

    Kill Chain Closure Efficiency Evaluation Based on Game Theory

    • 摘要: 为提高杀伤链闭合评估的科学性和有效性,分析比较杀伤链闭合评估中基于概率和图论的静态模型、基于时序和动态过程的模型以及基于人工智能和优化算法的模型等主要方法,建立基于链路闭环、时间闭环、精度闭环、价值闭环的杀伤链闭合评估指标体系,提出基于马尔可夫博弈模型的杀伤链闭合效能评估方法,并以俄乌冲突中俄军“伊斯坎德尔”导弹打击“海马斯”火箭炮发射车为例演示、验证了分析评估方法。

       

      Abstract: To improve the scientificity and effectiveness of kill chain closure evaluation, the main methods of current kill chain closure evaluation, such as static models based on probability and graph theory, models based on time series and dynamic processes, and models based on artificial intelligence and optimization algorithms, are analyzed and compared, and a kill chain closure evaluation index system based on link closed-loop, time closed-loop, precision closed-loop, and value closed-loop is established. Subsequently a kill chain closure efficiency evaluation method based on a Markov game model is proposed, and a case of the attack by a Russian Iskander missile on a HIMARS rocket launcher by the Russian army in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is used to illustrate the proposed method and evaluation porcedure, the analysis and evaluation method and process are demonstrated.

       

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