Abstract:
To improve the scientificity and effectiveness of kill chain closure evaluation, the main methods of current kill chain closure evaluation, such as static models based on probability and graph theory, models based on time series and dynamic processes, and models based on artificial intelligence and optimization algorithms, are analyzed and compared, and a kill chain closure evaluation index system based on link closed-loop, time closed-loop, precision closed-loop, and value closed-loop is established. Subsequently a kill chain closure efficiency evaluation method based on a Markov game model is proposed, and a case of the attack by a Russian Iskander missile on a HIMARS rocket launcher by the Russian army in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is used to illustrate the proposed method and evaluation porcedure, the analysis and evaluation method and process are demonstrated.